The markets reacted with a muted response to a largely expected victory of Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president.The euro erased early gains while S&P 500 Index futures were little changed after U.S. stocks closed at a record Friday. Oil rose while the yen slipped with gold. Japan will reopen after a three-day holiday last week.
With the hurdle determining France’s new leader now cleared, investors will turn to Chinese data on exports and imports for the latest detail on how a crackdown by regulators is impacting Asia’s largest economy.
That comes after last week’s robust American jobs report and Federal Reserve comments bolstered optimism in the U.S. economy.
It is also a big week for the Australian government who are releasing the annual budget on Tuesday. Australian economists are tipping the budget deficit for 2017-18 to come in around $25 billion, or well below the $28.7 billion projected in December's mid-year budget review, a welcome change from years of downward revisions.
We have seen another very busy week in terms of data with some central bank activity and the start of the two day G7 meetings at the end of the week which affects all the products we follow:
How the markets are looking
The US$ Index closed strongly lower last week ending on its lows.
We start on Wednesday with Crude Oil Inventories.
On Thursday we have the usual Unemployment Claims figure estimated to be 245,000 from the previous 238,000. This is followed by PPI expected to rise from -0.1% to 0.2%.
Friday we have both Core CPI and CPI. The former excludes food and energy and is thought to rise from -0.1% to 0.2%. CPI is also expected to rise from -0.3% to 0.2% Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales follow. The former excludes car sales and is anticipated to move from 0.0% to 0.5% whilst the latter is expected to rebound strongly from -0.2% to 0.6%.and finally end with Consumer Sentiment thought to remain unchanged at 97.0.
The AUD fell sharply against the USD and EUR last week.
Monday we have Retail Sales expected at 0.3% from the previous -0.1%.
Tuesday we have the Annual Budget Release.
The EURO rose strongly closing on its highs against the USD last week.
Monday we had the French Presidential election result.
Three items for the CNY this week.
Sunday we have the Trade balance number thought to be 197B from the previous 164B.
Tuesday sees both CPI and PPI. The former is expected to rise from 0.9% to 1.1% whilst the latter is thought to decline from 7.6% to 6.8%.
The GBP closed slightly lower against the USD last week.
A busy week for the GBP, all on Thursday.
Manufacturing Production is thought to have declined further from the previous -0.1% to -0.2%.This is followed by the BOE Inflation Report, the MPC Official bank Rate votes expected to remain at 1-0-8, the Official Bank Rate also expected to remain unchanged at 0.25% and finally the Monetary Policy Summary.
The YEN closed sharply lower against the USD last week.
There is no data for the YEN this week.